The metaverse and more plant-based meat: My predictions for SF in 2022 š®
12.30.21 * Circulation 3,950 * 182 members
Hey there, San Francisco.Ā
Hope you are doing well. Our regular, Monday-Friday newsletter will resume next week, but as we approach the new year, I thought it might be fun, or at least thought-provoking, to talk through some 2022 predictions for the city.Ā
To noteāIām not going to predict the outcomes for upcoming elections and recalls. There are a lot of those, and they will be for all of us to decide in the new year.Ā
Instead, today, letās talk about what's going to happen in the Tenderloin, how the āmetaverseā will start to shape our neighborhoods, and why plant-based meat might pop up on more menus across the city.Ā
So without further ado, here are my predictions for San Francisco in 2022 (that rhymed!)ā¦
The Tenderloinās state of emergency will be the most important story to follow in 2022.Ā
As a brief refresher, earlier this month, Mayor Breed held a fiery press conference inside City Hall calling for an end to āall the bullsh*tā happening in the Tenderloin. A Medium post released that same day outlined a broad-strokes-plan that, in part, described āinterrupting open air-drug dealingā and āopen-air substance abuse.āĀ
āWe need to take back our Tenderloin,ā the post read.Ā
Some 10 days later, after a grueling 10-hour meeting, the Board of Supervisors approved Mayor Breedās state of emergency declaration for the Tenderloin District meant to āeliminate bureaucratic barriersā and āwaive certain lawsā to address the areaās drug overdose crisis.Ā
But what that means in practice and how the SFPD will enforce Mayor Breedās āTenderloin Emergency Initiativeā remains to be seen.Ā
For instance, if a person is using drugs on a Tenderloin sidewalk, will the police give them a citation? Will they ask them to pack up their things and move to a different neighborhood? Or, will the police arrest them?
Supervisor Dean Preston pressed Police Chief Bill Scott on the issue during the boardās marathon meeting last week to which Scott said that āwe are not trying to make this an arrest-led situation,ā but in a scenario where a person was āsmoking fentanylā and refusing help, āthatās not a situation that weāre going to walk away from.ā
This week, SFPD spokesperson Adam Lobsinger told me that āeach interaction will be handled on a case by case basisā and that āthere is no single outcome that we can point to as each case is unique.āĀ
Fair. But what āoutcomeā will happen most often? Itās the most important question for our city, I think, in 2022.Ā
The cityās downtown core will continue to struggle.Ā
If youāre looking for good news, this prediction isnāt it.Ā
Throughout the pandemic, San Francisco has consistently lagged behind other major cities across the country when it comes to workers returning to their downtown offices. In November, when things were looking a little brighter on the Covid front, office occupancy was still just 27%.Ā
Regarding overall ātripsā downtown (which includes work commutes as well as people driving into the city for eating and entertainment), Axios recently reported that San Francisco has seen a 49% drop from the pre-pandemic figures (the national average was a 22% decline).Ā
All this was before Omicron.Ā
Who knows how long this recent variant will wreak its havoc? But given that many San Franciscans (and visitors) were staying away from our city center pre-Omicron, sadly, I canāt see an enthusiastic return happening next year.Ā
The āmetaverseā will start to shape our city more and more.Ā
Pardon the buzzword. But bear with me for just a moment.Ā
Thereās been plenty of talk about the metaverse this year, but for the sake of this conversation, I liked this explanation on Twitter. Basically, rather than picturing the metaverse as a virtual place, think of it as a āmoment in timeā when people start caring more about their digital lives and personas than their physical ones.Ā
Using this definition, we can see that weāre already sorta living in the metaverse. People are caring more and more about their online presence (how they carry themselves during a virtual work meeting, what their social media profiles look like, etc.) than they did, say, 5 or 10 years ago. And the pandemic (which moved people to spend even more time online) has only sped up this change.Ā
So what does this mean for San Francisco itself?Ā
Well, I think, the more we are online, the more of a premium we put on convenience. As in, our reliance on delivery will only further intensify.Ā
Just this week, for the first time, I saw a Sprinter van driving around the Lower Haight for Popcorn, a San Francisco-based startup that promises snacks and āhousehold essentialsā delivered in āminutes.ā Literally, there are now vans roaming our neighborhoods because people donāt want to go outside and walk to their local corner stores to pick up Kettle chips or Tylenol. I donāt mean to be a grouch. I just think itās sorta wild when you stop and think about that.Ā
I also canāt stop thinking about the proposed Amazon fulfillment center in the Design District, a site previously at the center of plans to bring over 1,000 housing units to the area.Ā
āThe change reflects a reality of 21st century cities,ā Chronicle urban design critic John King wrote of the Amazon proposal in November. āImpersonal convenience is what more people choose to rely on, even in supposedly urbane San Francisco.āĀ
The plan needs city approvals and an environmental study, which could take the entirety of 2022, but given that Amazon promises it could bring some 500 jobs, I bet it passes. And when it does, itāll be a physical change to the city pushed forward, in part, by the āmetaverse.āĀ
One more point here, if I havenāt lost you already. Being more online doesnāt mean people will stop āgoing outā completely. But when they do, there will more of an emphasis on what that real-world interaction means for their online persona. Ie. More and more, theyāll be doinā it for the Gram.Ā
Given that, sadly, I expect more āstuntā dishes on San Francisco restaurant menus in 2022 like we saw this year with The Dorianās 24-karat-gold burger or Lilyās $72, fully-loaded fried rice.Ā
Maybe a $100 meatball sub? Nothing at this point would surprise me.Ā
Local chains will embrace more plant-based options.Ā Ā
Speaking of food, hereās my culinary prediction for 2022: More plant-based meat on menus across San Francisco.Ā
I need to caveat this and say that my wife works in the plant-based meat industry. But thatās not why Iām making this prediction.Ā Ā
Call me crazy, but I thought one of the biggest San Francisco food stories of 2021 was Souvla introducing a plant-based lamb option. Souvla never changes its menu! Literally, this was owner Charles Bililiesā first menu addition since opening his first shop in Hayes Valley in 2014.Ā
And itās selling well! Bililies told me earlier this month that since introducing the option at the end of October, Souvla had sold nearly 6,000 Black Sheep sandwiches and saladsānumbers, he said, he was āvery pleasedā with.Ā
I have to imagine other San Francisco restaurant chain owners saw the Souvla roll-out and are thinking about how they can offer something similar. Will The Bird release a faux-fried chicken sandwich in 2022? Or will Del Popolo start putting plant-based sausage on their take-and-back pizzas?Ā
I have zero intel here, but again, given Souvlaās move, Iām guessing weāll see more plant-based meat across our favorite San Francisco menus in 2022.Ā
And finallyā¦Tunnel Tops park will be a lot cooler than we expect.Ā
Again, maybe Iām off my rocker, but I donāt think the Spring 2022 opening of the Tunnel Tops park in the Presidio is getting the attention it deserves.Ā
Imagine sitting on the main lawn in the Presidio (near the Walt Disney Museum) and thinking, āIād really like to head down to the Bay.ā Come April, when Tunnel Tops opens, youāll be able to literally walk over the nearby freeway tunnel via a beautifully landscaped park and arrive right near Chrissy Field.Ā
Tunnel Tops (and the nearby Battery Bluff project, which is also slated to open next spring) will totally transform the Presidio area, I think. And in 2022, I imagine spending a lot more time there.Ā
Alright, thatās all for our special 2022 predictions edition. It was fun to write and I hope, fun for you to read!
Have a safe and happy new year, and Iāll see you back here on Monday.
- Nick B.
Create your profile
Only paid subscribers can comment on this post
Check your email
For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.
Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.